(Bloomberg) – The yield on long-term federal loan bonds may end January with a maximum rise in seven months against the backdrop of sanctions risks and rising prices in Russia.
By the end of last year, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation tightened its rhetoric due to the acceleration of inflation more than forecast, while the rise in prices in December reached 4.9%. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg now expect the regulator to leave the key rate unchanged this year.
“Due to too high inflation, hopes that the Central Bank will soften policy in the very near future are dying,” says Yuri Tulinov, head of research at Rosbank. “This is not a reason to sell OFZs – rather, the lack of that support factor that could would be “.
The yield on OFZ 26230 maturing in 2039 in January may add 33 basis points against the growth of 36 basis points in June. The OFZ rate 26228 maturing in April 2030 may increase by 34 basis points to 6.25% per annum.
January passed for the OFZ market “in a minor key” against the background of the global strengthening of the dollar, to which geopolitical factors, high inflation and weak auction results were added at the local level, Tulinov wrote by e-mail. According to him, there are “few people willing to gain long positions until the above set of factors has turned in a more favorable direction.”
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