Good morning everyone!
The dividend gaps that have been happening over the past couple of weeks are weighing on our indices. Yesterday’s DG Gazprom generally brought the index below the lower limit of its range, and, formally, the technical picture is not the longest, but it also does not look like a fall. How does this mini uncertainty relate?
So let’s take a look at America.
The US major index sp500 shows a normal situation. The stage of an uptrend is fixed.
The situation is similar in the industrial Dow Jones. There is a retest of resistance, the index is looking at the longs.
Technological Nasdak, who many, and even I half a year ago, intended to short or made their predictions for short, still continues to show a growing trend. Wise as never before heard the words of W. Buffett “Never bet against America.” Indeed, guessing the high on America is the lot of a few, incredible unique ones. So far, I only know one thing – this is Ray Dalio, who shorted America through options a few months before the March 2020 collapse.
Germany. Industrial country. Country of cyclical economy and technologies of real production. Its DAX index is an important indicator of general conditions. So, everything is ok in the DAX, the index is looking at the continuation of the trend. This indirectly gives me grounds to be positive in Russia as well. And if Russia did not have this boring geopolitics and sanctions, there would be a more complete correlation. But the history of the subjunctive mood does not imply and does not know. And we work with you with what we have.
The oil is in the trade range. Its boundaries are quite narrow, or rather normal for her. The $ 5-6 range is an absolutely normal swing for oil. Will oil grow? My answer is yes. I’m waiting for her 80+, but my opinion may differ from someone else’s opinion. The main thing is that my opinion does not differ from those market participants who are now stronger in this instrument. Bulls are stronger in the medium term, balance is stronger in the short term. Therefore, I bet on the technical continuation of the trend.
The question is, does oil need to grow? There are so many oil fundamentalists now who give their Answer – “no, it is not needed, now the era of electric cars is coming” – this answer and theory is for the narrow-minded. It, this theory looks like this – Coal is needed, steel is needed, copper is needed, aluminum is needed, gas is needed, only we don’t need oil – that’s why we will all switch to electric cars by some year. Rave. Before that – it is still very far away. Oil is needed – and the growing trend shows it. Reduce investments in oil fields – get such a deficit that will send its price into space, to levels where it has never been seen. But this is only a variant of the forecast.
And if you descend into the skies of the fundamental to the technical ground, oil grows and I do not expect a trend change in the future. There may be a correction, but from higher levels. A scenario is possible that she will hang out in the current range and an exit from it will provide a shot upward to $ 80, and from it a more or less significant correction will begin, but not a downtrend.
Read about the most interesting in terms of counterfeit securities in our market at the end of yesterday in a more complete version of the morning analytics in the telegram channel @perfilov_invest.
With you was Alexander Perfilov, the author of the telegram channel “Glance at the Market”