The ruble rises in price on the Moscow Stock Exchange for the third day against the background of the continuing influx of foreign investors into the Russian national debt.
On Friday, the dollar dropped to 72.6950 rubles, a minimum since June 30, before retreating to 72.9750 at 16.10 Moscow time.
The euro with “tomorrow” settlements is trading at 86.68 rubles, although earlier it fell to 86.4675, the lowest in a month.
The ruble is supported by flows from non-residents, for whom the carry-trade idea is the key story, says Dmitry Polevoy, investment director at Loko-Invest.
Last week, foreign investors invested 46.3 billion rubles in federal loan bonds – a record amount this year. Since the beginning of this week, net inflow has already exceeded 55 billion rubles and has become the maximum since November, analysts from Sberbank CIB write.
The main reason for this interest was the decline in inflation, said Maxim Petronevich, senior economist at Otkritie Research.
The puzzle has formed in the minds of fund managers after Rosstat began reporting on weekly deflation and a slowdown in the annual rate from 6.6% to 6.4%.
This strengthened market expectations that the cycle of raising the key rate is complete and stimulated demand for debt assets, including from non-residents, explains Petronevich.
Foreign investors are demonstrating the “herd feeling” that is customary for such conditions, Polevoy says. However, in his opinion, Gazprom’s dividends may become a “cloud” on the still cloudless sky of the foreign exchange market.
On July 29, the company paid out 300 billion rubles to shareholders, of which about 20% will go into foreign currency, ING estimates: these are dividends attributable to foreign investors who will have to buy 800-900 million dollars in order to bring earnings to their jurisdictions.
As a result, “a temporary increase in volatility until the end of this week and at the beginning of the next” is possible, Polevoy warns.