By the beginning of next year, Rosstat will launch a system for the use of cash register equipment (CCP) data and will conduct two parallel calculations of the consumer price index. If the data are comparable, a partial transition to the calculation of inflation using data from checks is possible, the head of Rosstat Pavel Malkov said in an interview with TASS.
“By the end of this – at the beginning of next year, we will launch a system (on the use of data from online cash registers to calculate inflation – TASS note). And in 2022, we will begin to carry out two calculations in parallel: according to the old algorithm for collecting data on prices and tariffs, publishing the CPI (consumer price index – TASS) on the Rosstat website, and using new sources. We will see how they are comparable, and as soon as we understand that we have reached the point of comparability, we will be able to use them. But this will not be a complete transition to KKT, ”Malkov said.
According to him, last year Rosstat launched a project to parse and analyze data from checks provided by the Federal Tax Service. “The task turned out to be rather difficult and non-standard. At the first stage, we conducted pilot experiments in several regions. We see that the dynamics in our calculations, when prices are fixed by employees, and when data are taken into account in receipts, are similar, “Malkov noted.
The next step is to develop a methodology that will detail the use of cash register equipment data to calculate the consumer price index. “We will create a special information and analytical system with elements of artificial intelligence in order to correctly use data from checks, the Internet and other sources,” added the head of Rosstat.
Why a full transition to CCP data is not yet possible
So far, the KKT data that Rosstat receives cannot be used to completely replace the existing information. “If now we simply take and start replacing traditional data with the data of cash register receipts, we simply will not be able to ensure the comparability of the series, the accuracy is still insufficient. This is due to the fact that there is no single classifier of the names of commercial products, and therefore information on prices for certain goods has to be obtained from receipts based on artificial intelligence technologies, ”Malkov explained.
In addition, there are services that simply cannot be tracked using the CCP. “There are services that are used in the calculation of the CPI, but so far they may not be registered through the cash register. For example, apartment rentals, foreign language teaching services, it is difficult to find clothing repair services. There are a lot of such examples, so Rosstat will partially collect information manually for a long time to come, ”the head of Rosstat noted.
He added that the methodology for calculating inflation is not changing. “As the index was calculated a year ago, so we will count in a year or two. This is important to maintain comparability of data for time series. But we are increasing the number of data sources, we get the opportunity to see more sections – by regions and territories, by types of goods and services, by trade formats. That is, we get more opportunities for the subsequent analysis of price dynamics, ”Malkov summed up.
According to Rosstat, at the end of May, the growth rate of consumer prices in Russia reached 6% and became a record since October 2016, and accelerated to 6.2% in the first week of June. Food inflation exceeded 8% for the first time in 6 years.