The Russian ruble was actively losing its positions throughout the summer and the first month of autumn. What could be the reason for this?
The main reason for such a prolonged fall seems to be the actions of Russian banks. In July, they turned from players against the dollar to players against the ruble. According to the Central Bank of Russia, at the beginning of August, the total balance sheet position of the country’s credit institutions turned from (-3) trillion rubles to 1.2 trillion. That is, in just a month they converted more than 4 trillion rubles into dollars.
Aggregate balance sheet position at the beginning of the month (long + short; billion rubles)
Source: Bank of Russia
In addition, for the first time since November 2017, Russian banks have relied on the fall of the ruble. Among other things, this position is the largest since 2014.
However, credit institutions should be given their due, fluctuations in the rate of the Russian currency were not so noticeable and such a demand for currency did not lead to a landslide fall of the ruble.
In connection with what was the conversion made and the strategy changed? Perhaps this is some kind of technical factor. Although the amount is already very serious.
It can be assumed that the country’s credit institutions have changed their positions due to the deterioration of their economic forecast for the world economy and the demand for Russian export goods.
There may also be some kind of “insider information”, that is, there is a possibility that the country’s economic government came to a decision on a special weakening of the ruble to replenish the budget and support exporters, and the banks decided to take advantage of this.
Our telegram channel
- Traders’ positions on the ruble
- Positions of Russian banks on the ruble
It might be interesting:
- Why is the ruble mostly falling rather than rising?
- Shares are purchased using credit funds
- Russian banks are not ready for a sharp weakening of the ruble
- The fall of the markets can continue?
- Markets need new money, they refuse to grow on old ones