The ruble rises in price on the Moscow Exchange on Thursday, despite falling oil prices.
The dollar exchange rate dropped below 75 rubles after a series of statements from representatives of the US Federal Reserve System, who unanimously assured the markets that there were no plans to raise the rate or curtail the buyout in the near future.
At 18.02 Moscow time, the American currency is reduced by 49 kopecks, to 74.3775 rubles (the minimum since April 29). The euro depreciates by 22 kopecks, to 89.65 rubles.
Together with the ruble, most EM currencies go up: the Brazilian real adds 1.7%, the Indonesian rupee – 0.8%, the South African rand – 0.9%.
The dollar is weakening in Forex after a powerful series of verbal interventions from the US Federal Reserve, said Finam analyst Andrei Maslov.
On the eve of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Charles Evans said that the Fed should show “patience” and not rush to curtail the purchase of assets, since the acceleration of inflation is temporary, and it is unlikely that it will remain at 2.5-3% for a long time.
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said inflation is overstated due to the imbalances caused by the pandemic, but this is a short-term phenomenon that does not need to change the monetary policy.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that much more progress in the labor market would be required before the Fed’s terms to reduce asset purchases are met.
The same statement was de facto repeated by the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, Richard Clarida. “We still have a long way to go to achieve our goals, and we want to see real progress, not just forecasts,” he said.
Almost simultaneously, the representatives of the FRS “confirmed the main line of the central bank, that at the moment it is not planned not only to raise rates, but also to discuss a reduction in QE volumes,” Maslov states.
This pushed up the rates of highly profitable currencies and quotations of precious metals: the price of gold on Thursday for the first time since February broke the $ 1,800 per ounce mark, and silver futures soared by almost 4%.
The conjuncture in May is developing favorably for the Russian ruble, says Mikhail Shulgin, head of the global research department at Otkritie Broker: oil has consolidated in the range of $ 65-70 per barrel, tourist demand for currency remains low due to closed borders, and the profitability of the Russian government debt non-residents, taking into account the shortage of alternatives.
Since the geopolitical premium in the course is declining against the backdrop of a meeting of the presidents of the United States and Russia in June, the dollar may drop to 72 rubles in May, Shulgin predicts.
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