The Russian ruble has moved to strengthening, after approaching the mark of 80 rubles per dollar.
The Russian currency has noticeably lost in value in recent months, although there was no good reason for this. Oil quotes were stable in a narrow range, and the world stock markets did not move to a serious stage of decline.
Why did the ruble feel so weak against the background of relative stability? On the one hand, the geopolitical situation put pressure on the Russian currency. On the other hand, unlike in previous years, now non-residents are betting on the fall of the ruble in the spot market.
Source: Bank of Russia
Not only do foreign investors take a short position in the ruble, but non-residents have formed a net short in our currency since the end of February this year. From May to July, it decreased markedly, but is still present. For comparison, for more than two years foreigners have been playing on the fall of the dollar against the ruble, but this year the situation has changed radically.
Proceeding from the fact that since the spring of 2020, non-residents in their entire mass have refused to buy the ruble, it can be assumed that assets denominated in Russian currency are not acquired either. That is, the demand that exists in the OFZ market and in the stock market is ensured by domestic demand, and the received dividends and coupons on bonds are withdrawn from the country.
Among other things, due to the high uncertainty about the US elections, investors are wary of making any significant bets on developing countries. Therefore, there is no supporting demand for the ruble, especially since the surplus of the trade balance in the current year is significantly lower than last year’s indicators.
Thus, there is reason to believe that the ruble will be weak against the euro and the dollar until foreign capital begins to return to Russia, and this requires a new wave of global economic recovery.
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